China’s GDP growth in 2018 estimated to be down 0.2% by impact of China-U.S. trade war

TAIPEI (Taiwan News)--According to an International Data Corporation (IDC) report on August 3, the trade war between the United States and China will negatively impact both economies, particularly the Chinese economy due to its massive trade surplus with the U.S.

The report said the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. and China on US$34 billion worth of products from each side will bring down China’s GDP growth in 2018 by 0.2 percentage points (from 6.7% to 6.5%) by affecting approximately US$25 billion of GDP (US$1=RMB6.7).

Noting that China’s ICT market will be hit hard, the report said the overall growth of the sector in 2018 is estimated to suffer from a decline of 0.6 percentage points (from 9.0% to 8.4%), with approximately US$4 billion of market being affected.

“The Chinese ICT market is expected to suffer a greater negative impact from the trade war than China's national GDP because the outlook of a lower GDP growth will affect ICT purchase and a cheaper Renminbi will significantly increase the overall cost of China's ICT industry that rely heavily on imported technologies,” the report said.

Almost all Chinese industries will be directly or indirectly impacted by the trade war, the report said, adding that the manufacturing industry will be hit the hardest, especially in those areas related to the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, and the services sector, especially technology services.

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